The Shergar Cup returns to Ascot on Saturday with a fiercely competitive sprint showdown, and three of the sharpest voices in racing are lining up against the market favourite. Kate Tracey, Sam Boswell and Jamie Lynch have dissected the field for the six-furlong heat, each identifying angles that could upset Thunder Call’s dominance. With live coverage on Sky Sports Racing, the stage is set for a tactical battle where pace, trip and recent form will dictate the outcome.
Why the favourite is vulnerable
Thunder Call heads the market after his gallant defeat in a hot three-year-old handicap at Newmarket, but all three pundits are steering clear of the Haggas-trained sprinter. Jamie Lynch points to Havana Hurricane as the horse best equipped to exploit the conditions. “Quick conditions will help for Havana Hurricane,” Lynch notes. “He’s up to six furlongs from five last time and this is only his third handicap start too. He was well liked last year and won the Windsor Castle.” Lynch highlights the race’s recent trends, stressing that five of the last six winners have come from off the pace in a strong gallop, a profile that fits Havana Hurricane perfectly.
Sam Boswell takes a contrarian view, backing Cape Ashizuri despite his troubled recent runs. “I’m going against the favourite with Cape Ashizuri,” Boswell argues. “He ran in the Champagne Stakes on his second start where he did finish last, but they thought enough of him to pitch him into a Group Two on his second start. He then bumped into Saber Strike who is a good horse in his own right, before flopping at York in a big-field handicap. That was only his fifth career start and I’m willing to put a line through it.” Boswell sees Dylan Browne McMonagle’s return to the saddle as a key upgrade and expects the ground to suit a horse with unfinished potential.
Unproven talent vs. seasoned campaigners
Kate Tracey’s selection, Figjam, embodies the clash between unexposed talent and proven campaigners. “The horse for me is Figjam, who was second at Doncaster last season in a competitive handicap,” Tracey explains. “She had been pitched into the deep end in the Firth Of Clyde and ran fourth. She makes her handicap debut. Her rating could be a little high but the thing with her is she’s still so unexposed for a trainer who has done well with sprinting mares this season in Katie Scott. I think she’s a lot more unexposed than these and has a good chance here.” Tracey’s faith rests on the mare’s latent ability and Scott’s knack for extracting improvement from sprinting fillies.
Havana Hurricane, meanwhile, carries the momentum of a Windsor Castle victory and a recent step up in trip. Lynch’s emphasis on the horse’s progression from five to six furlongs—and his limited handicap experience—underscores a profile that could thrive in a race where stamina and tactical positioning matter as much as raw speed. Cape Ashizuri, despite his uneven record, offers a narrative of redemption, with Boswell betting on McMonagle’s influence to unlock a performance that belies his modest recent form.
Tactical chess in a sprint
The Shergar Cup Sprint is rarely decided by pure speed alone. Lynch’s observation about the race’s recent winners—five of the last six coming from off the pace—points to a tactical contest where jockeys must balance early position with the stamina to kick clear in the final furlong. Havana Hurricane’s ability to settle off the pace and quicken under pressure aligns with the pattern, while Figjam’s handicap debut adds an element of unpredictability. Cape Ashizuri’s potential upside, if McMonagle can engineer a clean passage, could exploit any over-ambitious pace set by the front-runners.
The ground, too, will play a role. Boswell’s confidence in Cape Ashizuri assumes conditions remain good, a factor that could separate horses with a preference for firmer ground. Tracey’s focus on Figjam’s unexposed profile suggests she sees value in a horse that hasn’t yet been tested in a truly competitive handicap, where ratings can mask genuine ability.
As the field lines up at Ascot, the pundits’ picks reflect a race where form, trip and tactical nous will collide. Havana Hurricane offers the most compelling blend of recent success and adaptability, while Figjam and Cape Ashizuri represent outsider threats with narratives built on potential rather than pedigree. The Shergar Cup has a habit of springing surprises, and Saturday’s sprint could be no different.
With live coverage on Sky Sports Racing, viewers can watch the action unfold and see whether the favourite’s reign ends—or if one of these outsiders can seize the moment. The stage is set for a sprint where the smart money might just be the one that bets against the market.
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